经济学家 Timothy Peterson：比特币仍存结构性上行潜力，年底上涨概率达 88%
2026-02-22 11:31:49
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ChainCatcher 消息，据 Cointelegraph 报道，加密经济学家 Timothy Peterson 最新分析指出，比特币在当前熊市回调中仍存结构性上行潜力：过去 24 个月中 50% 的月份录得正收益，这一指标暗示在任意 24 个月周期中，出现正收益拐点的概率较高。
Peterson 据此推算：比特币在未来 10 个月高于当前水平的概率达 88%。他强调，这一统计模型显示市场可能正接近转折点，而非持续下行。当前比特币价格约 68,173 美元，较年初高点回落近 25%，已抹去 2024-2025 年美国大选后大部分涨幅；Crypto Fear & Greed 指数跌至 “Extreme Fear” 9 分，社交媒体比特币预测热度枯竭，情绪趋中性。
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