Opinion: Coinbase's stablecoin revenue is expected to grow two to seven times under the GENIUS Act

Bloomberg Intelligence indicates that Coinbase is actively lobbying in Washington to retain its key stablecoin revenue source. According to BI analysts Paul Gulberg and Samuel Radowitz, if payment adoption accelerates, Coinbase's stablecoin revenue is expected to grow two to seven times under the framework of the GENIUS Act signed by President Trump in July 2025.

Currently, the act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yields to holders, and the legislative draft under negotiation may further prohibit exchanges from offering rewards linked to stablecoin balances. This could impact the profits Coinbase derives from its revenue-sharing agreement with Circle for USDC.

Coinbase's stablecoin revenue in 2025 is projected to be $1.35 billion, accounting for 19% of its total revenue. CEO Brian Armstrong stated last week that a "path forward" has been found, and even if the payment of yields to customers is prohibited, the company can still retain economic benefits from Circle, thereby improving profit margins.