潜在通胀风险升高削弱降息预期，美联储 3 月降息概率仅存 2.6%
Mar 10, 2026 15:56:03
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ChainCatcher 消息，中东地缘局势持续动荡，油价上升提高了潜在通胀风险并削弱了降息预期。据 CME“美联储观察”数据，当前美联储 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率仅存 2.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 97.4%。
美联储至 4 月维持利率不变的概率为 85.3%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 14.4%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.3%。
美联储接下来两次 FOMC 会议日期分别为 3 月 18 日、4 月 29 日。
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