Bitget UEX Daily Report | Fed Dot Plot Turns Significantly Hawkish; Micron Guidance Surges Then Drops; Middle East Oil and Gas Facilities Attacked (March 19, 2026)

# I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Dot Plot Significantly Tightens Rate Cut Path

• The Federal Reserve remained on hold as expected, with only one dissenting vote (Milan advocated for a 25bp cut). The statement added language regarding uncertainty in the Middle East situation, and the description of the unemployment rate was adjusted to "basically unchanged."
• The dot plot shows 7 members expect no rate cuts this year, and 12 expect at least one; a cumulative cut of only 25bp by 2026; GDP expectations for this year, next year, and the year after have been raised, with core PCE inflation expectations rising to 2.7% and 2.2%.
• Market Impact: The hawkish shift reinforces the narrative of "higher rates for longer," suppressing risk asset valuations, supporting the dollar, and increasing bond yield volatility.

International Commodities

Iran and Israel Attack Oil and Gas Facilities, Oil Prices Fluctuate Sharply at High Levels

• Iran's South Pars gas field and Qatar's hub were attacked, with Iran vowing to strike Gulf energy targets. The conflict entering its third week has led to a sharp escalation in supply disruption concerns.
• Gold prices fell significantly, breaching the $4,900 mark, continuing recent corrections; oil prices are supported by risk premiums but have increased volatility.
• Market Impact: Energy supply risks elevate inflation expectations, further confirming the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance; the high-interest-rate environment undermines gold's traditional safe-haven appeal, significantly amplifying short-term volatility.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S. Department of Defense Requests Over $200 Billion for Operations Against Iran

• The U.S. Department of Defense has requested over $200 billion from the White House/Congress for operations against Iran; Trump’s aides expect potential cracks in the U.S.-Israel alliance.
• Trump is seen as the most radical supporter of war within the White House, but advisors believe he may seek to end large-scale operations sooner than Netanyahu.
• Market Impact: Escalating geopolitical conflicts amplify fiscal pressure and inflation risks, providing short-term support for the dollar and energy assets, while long-term uncertainty weighs on growth stocks.

# II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Fell sharply, breaching the $4,900 mark, continuing its correction; high interest rates and inflation expectations suppress safe-haven demand.
• Spot Silver: Followed gold prices lower, dropping to $76.6, with industrial sensitivity further amplifying the decline.
• WTI Crude Oil: Rose 3.38% to $98.72, fluctuating at high levels, driven by concerns over supply disruptions from mutual attacks on Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities.
• Brent Crude Oil: Rose 3.6% to $106.58, also affected by the attack events, experiencing significant volatility at high levels.
• Dollar Index: Strengthened to 100.162, supported by hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Down 3.43% in 24 hours, currently around $71,081, continuing high-level adjustments, with U.S. stock correlations and declining risk appetite as dominant factors.
• ETH: Down 4.94% in 24 hours, currently around $2,194, following the overall market correction.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Down about 3.2% in 24 hours, total market cap falling to about $2.53 trillion, with overall risk assets adjusting.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $453 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidating about $380 million and short positions liquidating about $73 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $71,000, with a significant long liquidation concentration in the $70,000–$71,500 range. If the price falls back, it may trigger a chain liquidation of long positions and amplify downward volatility. Above, there is a large concentration of short liquidation leverage in the $72,500–$75,000 range; if the price continues to rise and breaks through this range, it may trigger a short squeeze and push the market further up.
• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of about $130 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF had a net outflow of about $55 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday, BTC spot inflow was $2.554 billion, outflow was $2.623 billion, with a net outflow of $99 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Down 1.63%, closing at 46,225.15, ending a streak of gains, with defensive sectors unable to withstand overall selling pressure.
• S&P 500: Down 1.36%, closing at 6,624.70, hitting a new low since November last year, with both growth and value sectors under pressure.
• Nasdaq: Down 1.46%, closing at 22,152.42, with tech giants collectively retreating dominating the decline.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Nvidia (NVDA): Down 0.84%, closing at $180.40, with strong AI demand but market risk appetite declining leading to profit-taking.
• Google (GOOGL): Down 1.04%, closing at $307.69, with positive expectations for AI cloud business but following sector adjustments.
• Apple (AAPL): Down 1.69%, closing at $249.94, with concerns over consumer demand linked to the broader market.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 1.91%, closing at $391.79, with long-term benefits from AI investment but short-term guidance pressure showing.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 2.48%, closing at $209.87, with AWS growth expectations overshadowed by macro uncertainty.
• Meta (META): Down 1.12%, closing at $615.68, with stable advertising business but metaverse contraction affecting sentiment.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 1.63%, closing at $392.78, with the narrative around autonomous driving suppressed by risk aversion.

Sector Movement Observation

Optical Communication Sector Soars

• Representative stocks: Lumentum up 7.89%, Coherent up 4.64%.
• Driving Factors: The OFC 2026 conference concentrated on releasing signals for AI infrastructure demand, with multiple companies showcasing new network expansion solutions, boosting sector sentiment.

Storage Chip Sector Diverges

• Representative stocks: Micron initially rose then fell.
• Driving Factors: AI server demand validates the boom, but significant capital expenditure increases trigger valuation digestion pressure.

# III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Micron Technology - Revenue Nearly Doubles, Guidance Significantly Exceeds Expectations

Event Overview: Micron Technology's Q2 revenue for fiscal year 2026 reached $23.86 billion, nearly doubling year-on-year, with gross margins approaching 75%. Revenue, EPS, and profit levels all set single-quarter historical highs, while announcing a 30% increase in quarterly dividends. The median revenue guidance for Q3 exceeds market expectations by 50%, with EPS nearly 70% higher, and a gross margin target of 81%; capital expenditures for this fiscal year have been raised by 25% to $25 billion, with expectations for expenditures to increase by over $10 billion in fiscal year 2027, primarily for HBM and DRAM capacity expansion (including the new Tongluo plant and U.S. fab project). After-hours stock price initially rose over 2%, then quickly turned to a decline of over 6%. Market Interpretation: Bernstein and Goldman Sachs believe this performance and guidance strongly validate the explosive demand for HBM/DRAM from AI servers, with the start of HBM4 mass production and capacity nearly sold out marking the official beginning of the storage chip upcycle. However, the aggressive capital expenditure plan raises concerns about cash flow pressure, extended return periods, and potential oversupply, leading to a rapid reversal in after-hours sentiment, with short-term valuations facing significant digestion pressure. Investment Insight: Micron is at the core of the AI memory supercycle, with HBM4 pricing power and fab utilization rates becoming key variables; investors should closely track the pace of capacity deployment in 2027 and the balance of supply and demand in the industry, while remaining vigilant about the volatility risks brought by capital expenditure execution efficiency under high growth expectations.

2. Nvidia - Jensen Huang Strongly Responds to DLSS 5 Controversy

Event Overview: At the GTC 2026 conference, Nvidia released its fifth-generation Deep Learning Super Sampling technology (DLSS 5), achieving a leap from low-resolution rendering to cinematic quality in milliseconds through generative AI, becoming a key technology for monetizing AI computing power at the consumer end. This technology has faced criticism from some players for being "overly reliant on AI" and potentially weakening artistic control; Jensen Huang strongly rebutted in the Q&A, stating that the criticism is "completely wrong," emphasizing that DLSS 5 deeply integrates controllability of geometric structures, textures, and game elements with generative AI, allowing developers to fine-tune and achieve generative control at the geometric level rather than merely post-processing. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe the controversy essentially reflects a market discussion on balancing AI applications between consumer gaming and data centers. Huang's firm stance not only defends the technological route but also reinforces Nvidia's absolute leading position in the AI graphics field, which is beneficial for the long-term expansion of the consumer GPU ecosystem and diversification of computing power monetization. Investment Insight: The continuous evolution of the DLSS series remains an important moat for Nvidia's consumer business; investors should continue to track the actual adoption rates of DLSS 5 by mainstream game developers and support for next-generation games. Under the trend of AI consumerization, this technology is expected to become a new growth driver for revenue in the coming years.

3. Tencent - Strategic Focus Clearly Shifts to AI

Event Overview: Tencent's management clearly announced in the latest earnings call that the strategic focus is shifting from traditional gaming business to artificial intelligence, continuing to significantly invest in large model research and AI infrastructure construction. Ma Huateng publicly elaborated on the "shrimp farming" strategy for the first time, proposing to implement AI in diverse scenarios through the "lobster" application, breaking through the limitations of traditional ChatBots, and planning to integrate the decentralized concept of WeChat mini-programs into the future AI ecosystem to balance interests. Meanwhile, executives responded to rising storage chip prices by pointing out that AI demand has fully driven tightness in the DRAM, HBM, and even CPU and hard disk supply chains. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally view this as a key strategic transformation for Tencent in the context of slowing gaming growth and regulatory environment. The shift to AI focus helps to break away from reliance on a single business, reshaping long-term growth narratives and valuation frameworks, especially under the synergistic effects of cloud services and AI infrastructure, significantly enhancing market confidence in the company's future competitiveness. Investment Insight: The success of the AI transformation will become a core catalyst for Tencent's valuation reassessment; investors need to closely observe the progress of large model commercialization, the increase in cloud business revenue share, and the actual execution effects of the "shrimp farming" strategy. In the long term, if this strategy progresses smoothly, it will significantly broaden the company's growth ceiling.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. The U.S. SEC has approved Nasdaq's rule change, allowing it to support tokenized stock trading. According to the approved documents, eligible participants can settle trades in tokenized form within pilot projects operated by depositary trust companies. Tokenized stocks will share the same order book and execution priority as traditional stocks and must provide shareholders with the same rights and privileges as regular trading stocks.

2. Kraken's parent company Payward secretly submitted an IPO application to the U.S. SEC last November, but recently, due to the cryptocurrency market weakening after Bitcoin reached an all-time high, valuation pressure and declining trading volume have led to a suspension of the listing process, awaiting improved market conditions to restart.

3. According to Michael Saylor, the annualized volatility of $STRC has dropped to about 1.5%, a historical low, while the Sharpe ratio has risen to about 5.37, setting a new high for risk-adjusted returns for this product. Saylor stated that under the current configuration structure, the return and volatility combination of $STRC sets a new benchmark for risk-adjusted return performance in the market.

4. "The ancient whale that hoarded 5,000 BTC 13 years ago" sold another 1,000 BTC (worth $71.57 million) 7 hours ago. He hoarded 5,000 BTC at a price of $332 in November 2013 and began selling from November 2024.

# V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 19 (Thursday)

1. The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, expected to keep rates unchanged;
2. However, the dot plot may indicate only one rate cut this year, significantly narrowing from previous market expectations;
3. Lululemon will announce its latest quarterly results;

March 20 (Friday)

1. FedEx will announce its latest quarterly results;

This week's core themes in the U.S. stock market revolve around the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, economic data releases, Micron's earnings report, and Nvidia's GTC conference, with expectations of increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Wall Street analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve's dot plot tightening significantly (reducing rate cut expectations from multiple to one or none this year) combined with supply disruptions caused by mutual attacks on Middle Eastern oil and gas facilities is significantly reshaping the inflation and growth trajectory. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan point out that high oil prices and fiscal spending expansion will prolong the anti-inflation process, and the Fed may be forced to maintain restrictive policies for longer. The hawkish shift has been largely priced in, and U.S. stock valuations face a new round of compression. Gold breaching the $4,900 mark reflects a decline in traditional safe-haven appeal in a high-interest-rate environment, while Bitcoin, although following risk assets in correction, is supported by resilient ETF inflows and clearer regulations. Bernstein strategists emphasize that the AI infrastructure sector (storage, optical communication) shows divergence in earnings season, with Micron's better-than-expected guidance validating strong demand but surging capital expenditures causing short-term volatility. Short-term market volatility is expected to increase, and it is recommended to closely monitor PPI data and the Federal Reserve's statements. If inflation exceeds expectations, U.S. stock defensive rotations may deepen, and precious metals and cryptocurrencies should be wary of downward risks from correlations.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.