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Bitcoin's Jump Out of Its Recent Range Boosts Investor Confidence — Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

2025-07-14 17:09:00

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0909 GMT - Bitcoin's rise past $120,000 for the first time is driven by growing investor confidence after the cryptocurrency broke out of a recent narrow trading range, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. This range had previously fuelled skepticism about bitcoin's ability to regain its strong upward momentum earlier in the year, he says. Uncertainties surrounding Trump's political and economic policies were dampening appetite for bitcoin, keeping it in a range. "Now, as other risk assets like stocks achieve new record highs, bitcoin has reignited its upward trajectory, capturing renewed market enthusiasm." Bitcoin rises 2.8% to $122,549 after earlier hitting a record high of $123,153, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0904 GMT - Whether or not China's trade growth momentum is sustainable in 2H depends on how the trade war evolves, according to ING economics in a research note. External demand continued to support Chinese economic growth in 1H, with trade surplus surging to a high of $586 billon amid resilient export growth and a year-on-year contraction in imports, the analysts say. Investors are watching several factors for 2H, including tariff negotiations between China and the U.S., the nature of other countries' deals with the U.S., as well as how China's trade relations with other countries develop. "Considering 1H25 data also benefited from a wave of trade front-loading in the first quarter of the year, we tend to err on the side of caution when looking at 2H25," they say. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0904 GMT - U.S. fears of an economic hit from trade tariffs could help the European Union avoid steep import duties, Generali Investments macro-research head Thomas Hempell writes in a note. President Trump vowed over the weekend to slap a 30% tariff on EU goods from August 1, leaving a matter of weeks for the two sides to hammer out a deal. The EU's negotiating position will be boosted by U.S. worries that tariffs could drive price inflation higher, as well as weighing on economic growth, Hempell says. "The impact of already imposed duties will soon start to show up in U.S. prices," he says.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee last week warned that tariffs were further muddying the inflation outlook and delaying potential cuts to U.S. interest rates. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0859 GMT - The cost of euro-denominated credit default swaps rises after the U.S. threatened the EU with 30% tariffs. Credit default swaps act as insurance against default. "The EU received a letter from President Trump that he would impose a 30% tariff rate on the euro area, dashing hopes from last week that the EU would agree a deal with the U.S.," XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index, which tracks euro junk bond credit default swaps, rises 3 basis points to 285bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0858 GMT - The U.K. is likely to raise tax rates and lower government spending to fill its fiscal gap, TD Securities' Pooja Kumra says in a note. The U.K. public finances remain vulnerable due to the effects of global tariffs. The Labour party's decision to reverse spending cuts on the welfare bill also add pressure to the country's limited finances, she says. Additional fiscal headroom required at the autumn budget could be between 10 billion pounds and 20 billion pounds, Kumra says. "The exact number is still hard to pencil in as it will also depend on tax revenues versus spending on a month-over-month basis as we head into the Autumn Budget." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0841 GMT - President Trump threatened a 30% tariff against the European Union, but trade talks continue and any agreement could be economically beneficial for Europe, says Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management in a note. "Any agreement would be a good sign for the [European] economy and higher inflation risks would be avoided if Europe decided not to retaliate," it says. That would also allow the European Central Bank to go ahead with a final interest-rate cut, the asset manager says. For the U.S., however, there could be a lasting impact on inflation if trade uncertainty were to last until 2026, it says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0840 GMT - China's efforts to establish alternative export routes are reflected in June trade data that showed continued growth, Barclays analysts say in a research note. The country's exports rose 5.8% on year last month, picking up from the 4.8% increase in May. The analysts highlight continuing transshipments via third-party countries amid a U.S. pause on higher reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. They note that Vietnam remains a major facilitator of indirect Chinese exports to the U.S. "Vietnam's exports to the U.S. tracked closely with its imports from China, in our view." (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0839 GMT - U.S.-South Korean tariff talks could take longer than expected because both sides should renegotiate how to share the cost of the U.S.'s military presence in South Korea, Goldman Sachs says. "Talks with Korea now include defense cost-sharing, which may slow progress," GS analysts led by Goohoon Kwon write in a research note. The issue has added complexity to trade negotiations, they say, as Seoul plans to stick to an existing 2024 agreement that requires defense cost-sharing of $1.11 billion from Seoul in 2026, while President Trump is seeking a larger Korean contribution. GS expects both sides to eventually reach a trade deal, citing shared strategic interests in manufacturing, energy and shipbuilding sectors. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0806 GMT - China is set to face a "demand cliff" in 2H, Nomura analysts say. Exports finished 1H on a high but payback is looming after multiple rounds of front-loading. Further front-loading before the 90-day tariff deadline ends could be limited by still-high duties, they say. China's indirect exports to the U.S. via third countries could be significantly damped, as many are eager to strike trade deals with Washington. The souring of EU ties could limit exporters from finding alternative markets, while the end of de minimis exemption closes a loophole for small parcels entering the U.S., Nomura adds. These headwinds, together with local factors like the campaign to address overcapacity and renewed property weakness, suggest a China on the brink of a demand cliff. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0754 GMT - Singapore's economy is unlikely to sustain 1H's solid growth momentum, UOB associate economist Jester Koh writes in a note. Factors including the front-loading of exports have supported the city-state's growth. But that momentum is expected to fade in 2H due to payback effects from the front-loading and a potential drag from U.S. reciprocal tariffs, Koh says. "A tariff-induced slowdown in Singapore's key trading partners could further intensify downside risks to growth." UOB now expects Singapore's economy to grow 2.1% this year, compared with 1.7% expected previously, before easing to 1.4% in 2026. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - China's exports have been pretty resilient so far. But with tariffs likely to stay high and Chinese manufacturers' bid to expand abroad by cutting prices facing tougher constraints, that resilience is set to falter, Capital Economics says. The key driver in June's recovery was improved U.S. demand after the U.S.-China trade truce, which reversed some tariff hikes. CE's Zichun Huang doubts direct exports to the U.S. will hold up this well for long. Some of June's rebound probably reflects temporary efforts by importers to stockpile Chinese goods amid fears of renewed escalation, she adds. China's exports will likely slow over the coming quarters, weighing on economic growth. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - The Mexican peso falls slightly after President Trump threatened a 30% tariff against Mexico unless a trade deal is reached by August 1. The tariffs would replace the 25% tariff on Mexican goods that don't comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free-trade agreement. However, markets are betting that Trump will back down from his tariff threats, UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan says in an audio comment. This could be limiting the peso's losses. The dollar rises 0.3% to 18.6801 pesos. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

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