Bitcoin Falls, Stays at High Levels Amid Focus on U.S. Legislation — Market Talk

0918 GMT - Bitcoin falls, last down 1.3% at $118,432, according to LSEG data. It stays below Monday's record of $123,153 as investors await news on U.S. bills being discussed this week to regulate cryto assets, dubbed 'Crypto Week'. Analysts expect they will boost cryto assets, leaving open the prospect of bitcoin reaching another record high. "The measures and definition potentially gained from the acts can almost be seen as a truly defining moment," says Pepperstone's Chris Weston in a note. The legislation faced a setback this week when the House rejected a procedural vote on the stablecoin bill, but the bills are still expected to pass. Bitcoin continues to trade at a high level, staying comfortably above this week's low of $115,765, LSEG data show. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)

0904 GMT - Higher U.S. tariffs and an uncertain global outlook are expected to weigh on Malaysia's growth and investor sentiment, though domestic demand may remain supportive, RHB IB analyst Alexander Chia says in a note. He lowers Malaysia's 2025 GDP forecast to 4.2% from 4.5% due to growing global risks. He advises investors to stay nimble and adopt a more trading-oriented mindset, leaning toward defensive stocks. While robust liquidity may cushion downside risks, sustained equity market gains in 3Q could be limited by continuing trade and policy uncertainty, he adds. RHB maintains its end-2025 KLCI target at 1600. The KLCI is 0.6% higher at 1520.94. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0832 GMT - Base metals slip in early trade as the U.S. dollar strengthens and investors unwind their positions across the copper curve, pressuring the wider sector. LME three-month copper futures are down 0.2% to $9,617.50 a metric ton, while aluminum falls 0.4% to $2,564.50 a ton. London copper inventories are rising as shipments originally bound for the U.S. are being redirected back to LME warehouses, according to Sucden Financial. The shift comes as the window to meet upcoming U.S. tariff deadlines tightens, making it harder for exporters to get material into the country in time. "This suggests that speculative positioning tied to U.S. copper tariffs is losing momentum," says head of research Daria Efanova. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0827 GMT - The U.K. March 2030 gilt, which is due to be auctioned at 0900 GMT, trades cheap in relative-value terms, RBC Capital Markets analysts say in a note. The March 2030 gilt yields have increased from around 3.923% at the start of July to 4.088% currently, Tradeweb data show. The cheap valuation is likely to support demand during the auction, which is expected to go well, the analysts say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0824 GMT - The U.K. labor market data released on Thursday shows a rise in the unemployment rate, signalling that the economy is slowing, Quilter's Lindsay James says in a note. The U.K. unemployment rate in the three months to May rose to 4.7%, from 4.6% in the previous three months to April. "The figures reinforce recent signals from business surveys that hiring conditions are softening in the wake of the employer National Insurance changes," James says. The weakening labor market data and above target inflation complicates the Bank of England's role, she says. "Markets had been increasingly pricing in a rate cut as soon as August, but yesterday's inflation surprise may temper those expectations." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0814 GMT - Malaysia's tariff negotiations with the U.S. could lead to a positive outcome, lowering the current 25% tariff to 15%-19%, Apex Securities analyst Ong Tze Hern and team say in a note. With high export exposure, Malaysia faces greater pressure to compromise and may increase imports of U.S. goods, such as LNG, corn, soybeans, Boeing jets or defense assets to secure relief, they note. Lower tariffs could support GDP growth at 4.1%-4.2% in 2025, but if tariffs remain at 20% or above, growth could fall below 4%, they reckon. With limited room for fiscal stimulus, monetary policy may need to bear the burden of supporting growth, with another rate cut possible in 2Q 2026 if downside risks persist, they add, noting that despite near-term risks, Malaysia's underlying fundamentals may remain resilient. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0759 GMT - Singapore's economic growth could weaken in 2H, says Jester Koh, an associate economist at UOB, in a note. He notes that 1H's growth was boosted by front-loading exports and manufacturing to avoid possible U.S. tariffs. As a result, 2H's growth may suffer from "payback" effects and could be further dragged by U.S. reciprocal tariffs affecting both Singapore and its trading partners. Tariffs may lead to weaker demand and weigh on sectoral growth. Trade-related services such as transport and storage may be pressured more than manufacturing, given that front-loading was more pronounced in electronic exports than in other sectors. UOB maintains its 2025 non-oil exports forecast at 1%-3%, but notes that the tariff situation remains fluid. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

0753 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb after labor market data showed only modest easing, lowering the chances of fast interest-rate cuts. The U.K. unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.7% in the three months to May, from 4.6% in the three months to April. Average wage growth excluding bonuses in the three months to May stood at 5.0%, stronger than the 4.9% consensus forecast by economists in a WSJ poll. "The latest data shows things aren't snowballing, which is what we tend to see during recessions," ING economist James Smith says in a note. The 10-year gilt yields climb 3 basis points to 4.675%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - China's home sales momentum is likely to stay weak through the seasonally low months of July and August, as Beijing isn't expected to further ease policy for now, Julius Baer fixed income analyst Sok Yin Yong writes in an email. The country's property data for June stayed weak, with sharper declines seen in new home sales and home prices, the analyst says. While the country's economy has held up well in 1H, the outlook remains challenging given U.S. tariff uncertainties and a downturn in the property sector, the analyst says. Furthermore, market speculation of a shanty-town redevelopment program wasn't mentioned at the recent central urban work conference with President Xi Jinping, the analyst adds. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0750 GMT - Gold prices fall on a stronger U.S. dollar after President Trump denied that he had plans to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Futures are down 0.7% to $3,334.70 a troy ounce, while the U.S. dollar index trades 0.3% higher at 98.69. Gold gained more than 1% in the previous session on reports that Trump was likely to fire Powell soon. The President later described such a move as "highly unlikely." "Although markets calmed after the president's remarks, uncertainty remains over possible political interference in the Fed," says Soojin Kim, analyst at MUFG. "Any move to oust Powell before his term ends in 2026 could undermine central bank independence and further lift demand for safe-haven assets." Despite the dip, gold remains up more than 26% this year, driven by central-bank buying and macro uncertainties. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0739 GMT - China may deploy more policy support to boost consumption, including the possible rollout of a long-anticipated childcare subsidy, Citi economists write in a note. Investors are looking for more policy clues in the upcoming Politburo meeting later this month, the analysts add. An austerity rule implemented in May restricting public servants from dining out in a push to cut down on lavish spending has had a chilling effect on consumption into the summer, Citi says. The policy led to an obvious slowdown in restaurant revenue, as well as tobacco, beverage and alcohol sales in June, Citi says. The bank projects the rule to drag 2H retail sales growth down by 0.6 percentage point. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0729 GMT - Volvo Car operating profit and margins came in slightly above expectations excluding restructuring and impairments, while free cash flow also exceeded expectations, Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Alexandre Raverdy writes. Sales fell by around 8%, but still landed above consensus as it benefited from a one-off boost related to the sale of inventory in the U.K. "We believe that the share will react positively to the report." Against a backdrop of the very challenging climate, Volvo Car continues to focus on cost and cash flow discipline in line with its plan to save 18 billion Swedish kronor, Raverdy says. The group confirmed that it will introduce local production of the XC60 SUV model in the U.S. to avoid tariffs. Shares rise 9%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)