Elon Musk’s Grok AI integrates with Kalshi, Paradigm-backed prediction market

The Block

2025-07-25 03:40:39

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xAI, the artificial‑intelligence startup founded by Elon Musk, will integrate its Grok conversational model into Kalshi, the only CFTC‑regulated exchange for event‑based contracts, bringing real‑time AI analysis to retail traders wagering on everything from Fed decisions to Oscar winners.

The tie‑up is effective immediately, the companies said on X. Kalshi users will be able to query Grok’s large‑language model for onchain data, historical odds, and breaking headlines before placing trades, while xAI gains a live environment to stress‑test Grok’s reasoning and probability outputs.

Kalshi operates a federally regulated prediction market where traders buy shares of “yes” or “no” contracts on future events, with stakes settling at $1 per share if correct and zero if wrong. The venue accepts crypto deposits in bitcoin, SOL, USDC, and WLD, but settles all wagers in U.S. dollars. Founded in 2018 by MIT alumni Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, the New York‑based firm processed $1.4 billion in trades over 11 days for election-related contracts, a November 2024 report from the FIA Expo stated.

xAI builds Grok, an LLM positioned as a challenger to OpenAI’s ChatGPT and embedded inside Musk‑owned social platform X.

The partnership follows Kalshi’s $185 million Series B round in June 2025, led by crypto VC firm Paradigm, that valued the platform at $2 billion. Musk’s AI studio was valued on paper at $80 billion after an all-stock acquisition of X, Axios reported. “Two of the fastest-growing companies in America are now on the same team,” the official xAI account posted on X.

Kalshi’s collaboration with xAI occurs amid ongoing debates in Washington about expanding retail access to event contracts. The CFTC reopened public comments on political-election markets in June 2025 after a contentious debate sparked by Kalshi’s legal victory in 2024, which allowed it to offer election-related contracts after a federal appeals court ruling overturned a CFTC ban.

Meanwhile, prediction market rival Polymarket plans to re-enter the U.S. by acquiring derivatives exchange QCEX.

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