Bitcoin in Period of Consolidation But Could Turn Higher — Market Talk

0714 GMT - Bitcoin is experiencing a healthy period of consolidation after its rally to an all-time high above $120,000 last month, 21Shares crypto strategist Matt Mena says. This is a typical pattern for bitcoin after a major breakout, he says. "It often cools off, trades sideways, or even retests prior highs before setting up for the next leg higher--exactly what we're seeing now." Bitcoin is still trading above its previous cycle high of $112,500. That suggests a constructive market that's "simply catching its breath" before the next move, Mena says. Bitcoin rises 0.4% to $114,112, LSEG data show. It reached a record high of $123,153 on July 14. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0707 GMT - The Swiss franc could recover marginally if Switzerland secures a trade deal with the U.S. ahead of Thursday's deadline, Danske Bank analyst Jens Peter Sorensen says in a note. "Still, the U.S. is mulling hiking tariffs on pharmaceutical imports up to as much as 250% over the coming years, which would hurt Swiss exports and the franc." Switzerland faces a 39% tariff on its exports to the U.S. unless it reaches a deal. Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter travelled to Washington on Tuesday for trade negotiations. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9346 francs. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0658 GMT - Assets under administration at U.K. direct-to-customer investment platforms surged over the second quarter, tracking the market rebound following the tariff-induced meltdown in the first days of April, data compiled by Fundscape shows. The end of the tax year and activity in individual savings accounts also contributed to the impressive 8.2% growth in industry assets to a record 441 billion pounds, according to the Fundscape's quarterly Direct Matters report. The top five direct-to-consumer platforms by asset growth were Hargreaves Lansdown, Aberdeen's Interactive Investor and AJ Bell. Gross flows were 19.6 billion pounds for the period while net sales--or flows--were 7.9 billion pounds. "We expect net sales to soften over summer and going into autumn," Fundscape's Gemma Maher says. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0647 GMT - The U.K. economy should show a recovery at the end of the second quarter thanks to a rebound in manufacturing and some sunny summer weather, Elliott Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroecononics writes in a note. U.K. GDP fell back unexpectedly in May, but should rebound in June by 0.2%, according to Pantheon's estimates. Automotive output should rally after some tariff-related weakness, while construction should also have enjoyed a strong month, Jordan-Doak says. Services, especially hospitality, will meanwhile have seen a bounce from summer sun that sent people flocking to pubs and restaurants, he says. GDP data for June and the second quarter are due for release on Thursday, August 14. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0639 GMT - The dollar remains under pressure after weaker-than-expected U.S. services data on Tuesday fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve could resume interest-rate cuts in September. The ISM's services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in July, below the 51.2 expected by economists in a WSJ survey. It follows Friday's worse-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, adding to rate-cut bets. Meanwhile, President Trump on Tuesday said he would name a replacement for Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler by the end of the week. Kugler unexpectedly resigned Friday and Trump could name a successor that aligns with his view that rates should be lowered. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.688. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0623 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's $42 billion auction of 10-year notes on Wednesday could be a litmus test of demand amid mixed U.S. economic data recently. The auction "will be closely eyed amid concerns over the economy's potentially fragile underbelly," Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. Demand at the auction could be an indicator for the Treasury's $25 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 2.8 basis points to 4.234%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0610 GMT - German Bunds continue to trade in their summer range, though volatility could decline amid a thin data calendar, says Commerzbank Research's Erik Liem in a note. "A quiet day appears to lie ahead," the rates strategist says. German new orders will set the tone with the European opening, while the data calendar remains largely depleted ahead of Thursday's likely Bank of England interest-rate cut, he says. Germany's 2.5 billion euro auction of May 2038- and July 2042-dated Bunds, with results at 0930 GMT, could weigh on Bunds in the morning, Liem says. The 10-year Bund yield is flat at 2.622% after opening, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0606 GMT - The Norges Bank's auction of 2030- and 2035-dated government bonds on Wednesday, the first after the summer break, will be the fourth consecutive dual auction including the 10-year bond, says SEB Research's Erica Dalsto in a note. "But it is hardly surprising, considering solid demand for this segment of the curve," the chief Norway strategist says. As such, the auction is expected to run smoothly, she says. Norges Bank will offer a combined 3 billion kroner in the two bonds. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0558 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise across maturities in Asian trading hours with the curve steepening, driven by a bigger increase in long-end yields than in short-end yields. The move signals a reversal from Tuesday's flattening, whereby the gap between short- and long-end yields narrowed. "The move [flattening] was driven by ISM service data showing a stagnating service sector, but rising price pressure which adds to the uncertainty regarding future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve," says Danske Bank's Sofie Pedersen in a note. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1.6 basis points to 3.731%, while both the 10-and 30-year Treasury yields increase 2.8 basis points to 4.223% and 4.796%, respectively, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0539 GMT - The 30-year Japanese government bond yields have risen around 80 basis points year to date and the curve is the steepest in years, reflecting fiscal looseness, says Validus Risk Management's Harun Thilak in a note. Opposition parties are demanding tax cuts and a larger stimulus package, the head of global capital markets North America says. "If a looser budget demands more long-dated issuance, yields could climb further," he says. The Bank of Japan's policy rate has been pinned at 0.50% since January, "yet rising bond yields and political pressure to keep borrowing costs low leave the central bank in a tight spot," Thilak says. The 30-year JGB yield falls 1.2 basis points to 3.069%; according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0300 GMT - The Philippine economy is estimated to have grown 5.3% on year in 2Q, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That would be slightly slower than the 5.4% expansion seen in 1Q. The economy appears to be in a softer patch during 2Q, economists at Capital Economics write in a note. "A key drag is likely to have come from the external sector," they say. Monthly data points to a sharp slowdown in export growth after 1Q's strong gains, they add. The GDP data are due Thursday. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0253 GMT - The Singapore dollar consolidates against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session. There's been a "small softening" in risk sentiment, NAB's Tapas Strickland says in a commentary, citing two developments. The U.S. ISM services report released overnight was soft, the head of Market Economics says. Also, President Trump said he will unveil tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals "within the next week or so" and that tariffs on drugs could ultimately reach 250%, Strickland notes. USD/SGD is little changed at 1.2881. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)