Bitcoin Continues to Consolidate From Record High — Market Talk

0749 GMT - Bitcoin recovers marginally but remains at weaker levels after reaching a two-and-a-half-week low overnight. The cryptocurrency remains in "correction mode" since hitting a record high last week, LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger says in a note. This comes as recent higher-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data dampened expectations for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, he says. "We would also attribute some of the selling to profit taking from shorter-term accounts and perhaps the recent statement from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the strategic bitcoin reserve would not be expanded with new purchases." Bitcoin rises 0.2% to $113,780 after reaching a low of $112,578 overnight, LSEG data show. It hit a record high of $124,480 last Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0749 GMT - Philippines' 2H GDP growth momentum is expected to be slightly better than 1H, OCBC economists write in a report. They forecast 2H GDP growth at 5.6%, slightly higher than 1H's 5.4%. Prospects for key growth drivers such as household and investment spending are looking better in 2H. Household spending has also improved in the last three quarters, thanks to the Philippine central bank's accommodative stance, they say. Public investment spending is also expected normalize after the country's mid-term elections in May this year, they add.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0743 GMT - Gold futures rise, though they remain stuck in a relatively narrow range of trading with few catalysts to move higher or lower. Futures are up 0.2% at $3,367.2 a troy ounce, though they remain down 1.2% on week. Safe-haven demand for the precious metal is subdued as optimism over a potential Russia-Ukraine cease-fire grows and markets turn their attention to the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming annual gathering at Jackson Hole. Remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the meeting later this week could clarify the pathway for monetary policy, Sucden Financial analysts say in a note. While a September interest rate cut remains widely expected, dovish optimism has still waned over the past week, dragging down gold prices, Sucden analysts write. Higher rates for longer typically blunt non-interest bearing bullion's appeal. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds are slightly lower following data showing U.K. inflation rose further in July. The U.K. annual headline inflation rose 3.8% in July, up from 3.6% in June. This was above the consensus forecast of 3.7% by economists in a WSJ poll, although many analysts had forecast a rate of 3.8%. The headline inflation also matches the Bank of England's forecasts, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Elliot Jordan-Doak says in a note. The 10-year gilt yield is last down 1 basis point at 4.721%, Tradeweb data show. On Tuesday, the 10-year yield reached 4.756%, its highest since late May. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0705 GMT - Thailand's 2H GDP growth is expected to slow due to headwinds, says DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng in a report. 2Q GDP growth was resilient at 2.8%, thanks to exports frontloading and strong investment. However, the pace of goods exports is likely to ease in 2H, as frontloading fades, Chua writes. Tourism and private consumption may also be dragged lower by rising regional competition and falling consumer confidence. Private investment is also expected to face challenges amid an uncertain global landscape, Chua adds. DBS expects Thailand's economy to grow 2.1% in 2025.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0659 GMT - The Swedish krona falls as traders turn cautious ahead of a Riksbank policy decision at 0730 GMT. The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a 25 basis-point interest-rate cut and a 78% chance that rates will be left unchanged, LSEG data show. Despite concerns about a weaker economy, the Riksbank is likely to wait until September at the earliest to cut rates given inflation remains well above the 2% target, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. If the Riksbank signals a September rate cut, the krona could fall as the market only sees a 25% chance of such a move, she says. The euro rises 0.1% to 11.1820 krona. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0651 GMT - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could attempt to inject some uncertainty into rate-cut expectations during Friday's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, says Madison Investments' Mike Sanders. U.S. money markets are pricing an 84% chance of a rate reduction next month and Powell "should want to temper that confidence in case incoming data doesn't cooperate," the head of fixed income says. This would provide the Fed with options if inflation is higher than expected or if jobs data rebound, he says. Data between Jackson Hole and the September Fed meeting could materially change the outlook, Sanders says. Powell can't afford to "effectively lock the Fed into a September cut," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0649 GMT - The dollar trades steady as investors wait for clues on the Federal Reserve's plans for interest-rate cuts. The Fed's meeting minutes will be released at 1800 GMT. However, the decisive factor for the market will be what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in a speech at the Jackson Hole symposium Friday, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. Powell has "sufficient grounds to be cautious about the pace of interest-rate cuts." Inflation remains above target, the labor market is showing signs of weakness but not slumping, and the economy continues to perform well, she says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 98.313. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0648 GMT - The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its accommodative stance, despite tailwinds from the U.S.-South Korean deal to lower President Trump's blanket tariff and signs of a recovery in consumption, Nomura economists led by Jeong Woo Park write in a note. The central bank is likely to remain cautious about South Korea's recovery path because tariffs could still adversely affect exports later, they say. Nomura expects the bank to revise up its 2025 and 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 0.9% and 1.8%, respectively, from 0.8% and 1.6% previously. The BOK is likely to hold the policy rate next week before possibly cutting it in October, Nomura says. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0635 GMT - The Bank of England now looks very unlikely to cut interest rates next month, says Suren Thiru at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, after annual inflation increased by more than expected. A July increase of 3.8% on year in consumer prices took the rate of inflation to its highest in 18 months, driven by higher prices for air fares. "July's outturn probably extinguishes hope of a September interest rate cut, while strengthening underlying inflationary pressures calls into question whether policymakers will be able to relax policy again this year," Thiru writes in a note to clients. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)

0628 GMT - An economic recovery is expected to push German government bond issuance volumes and 10-year Bund yields higher later this year and next year, according to DZ Bank Research's expectations. "Towards the end of this year and in 2026, we envisage an economic recovery, higher issuance volumes of German government bonds and the end of the rate cut cycle leading to rise in 10-year yields," analyst Birgit Henseler says in a note. DZ Bank forecasts the 10-year Bund yield at around 3% by the summer of 2026. In the short term, it expects the 10-year Bund yield to move slightly lower to around 2.60%. The 10-year Bund yield falls 0.6 basis point to 2.745%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0625 GMT - Sterling rises after data showed U.K. inflation accelerated more than expected in July. Annual inflation rose 3.8% in July, up from 3.6% in June and above the 3.7% forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. Core inflation also increased 3.8% after a 3.7% rise in June, exceeding the 3.7% expected. With a peak in prices not anticipated until later in the year, the Bank of England's scope to cut interest rates will be "severely limited," Raymond James Investment Services strategist Jeremy Batstone-Carr says in a note. Sterling rises to an intraday high of $1.3508 after the data from $1.3482 beforehand. The euro falls to a five-day low of 0.8603 pounds from 0.8630 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)