Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with internal disagreements

According to Jin Shi reports, Barclays economists stated in a report that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the meeting on December 9-10 is very high, with the market pricing the probability of a rate cut exceeding 80%. They expect Powell to support this rate cut, but there may be strong internal disagreements, with at least two hawkish dissenting votes from Schmid and Musalem. Barclays also noted that the statement and the chairman's press conference will be slightly hawkish, suggesting a possible pause in January unless the labor market conditions worsen beyond expectations.