Bitcoin may drop below $60,000, and the return period could extend to 2027, with increased selling pressure from whales intensifying downside risks

According to Cointelegraph, the latest data shows that if Bitcoin further falls below $60,000, the time for the market to recover to historical highs may be delayed until 2027.

Analysis indicates that Bitcoin has retraced about 48% from its peak of approximately $126,000 in 2025. According to historical patterns, for every additional 10% drop, the recovery period is extended by an average of about 80 days. If $60,000 is the bottom for this phase, it is expected to take about 300 days to complete the recovery; however, if it continues to drop to the $40,000-$45,000 range, the overall retracement will exceed 60%, and the recovery period may extend to about 440 days, pushing the timeline to after the second quarter of 2027.

On-chain indicators also show that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. The comprehensive market index (BCMI) is currently around 0.27, above the historical bottom range (approximately 0.12-0.15), indicating that there is still room for further downside. In terms of capital flow, the continued selling by whales is intensifying pressure. Data shows that the selling intensity by large holders has reached its highest level in nearly 18 months, while liquidity in both the spot and futures markets is weakening simultaneously. Institutional views suggest that the current market is in a deep adjustment cycle, and if the macro environment remains tight (including high interest rates or even rate hikes), it will further delay the recovery pace of the cryptocurrency market.