Forecast Protocol

Forecast Protocol is a leveraged prediction market on Base whose key constraint is solvency first: a new leveraged position is accepted only if the liquidity pool can still cover all positions under either outcome, so the design does not rely on price-based forced liquidation. Traders hold a geared direction and pay funding, USDC liquidity providers supply capital and earn that funding, and prices on both sides are set by supply and demand for funding rather than by order-book matching.

It addresses the liquidation problem that arises when leverage is added to prediction markets: event contracts have no continuous mid-price, and a rule that liquidates when price crosses a threshold is hard to define for binary outcomes, with forced copying producing cascading closes near the floor. Forecast moves risk control forward to the entry condition, using pool solvency in place of a liquidation line. The settlement system has been formally verified, mainnet access opened through a whitelist, and a pre-funded campaign closed once it reached its 2 million dollar cap. The project took part in Base Batches 003 in 2026. Its branch is leverage without liquidation.