Analyst: The ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and if the current structure continues, it may drop another 40%

Analyst Yashu Gola stated that the ETH/BTC exchange rate has fallen over 35% in the past year, and the current trend is repeating the bearish structure from 2024 to 2025, indicating there may still be further downside potential.

From a technical perspective, ETH/BTC has been long constrained by a downward trend line since 2022, with several attempts to break through failing, one of which triggered a subsequent drop of nearly 70%. In August 2025, ETH/BTC tested this trend line again but faced resistance and fell below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034, indicating that bears still dominate the trend. If the weakness continues, the next key downside target is around 0.0176 BTC, representing about a 40% drop from current levels, corresponding to the low point area of the 2020 cycle.

On-chain data shows that the selling pressure risk for ETH is also rising. CryptoQuant data indicates that as of today, ETH reserves on the Binance platform have risen to 3.62 million, accounting for about 24.6% of all trading platform ETH reserves; meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have continued to decline during the same period. Generally, an increase in trading platform reserves indicates a greater supply of tokens available for sale, while a decrease in reserves reflects a strengthening trend of long-term holding.

Analysts believe this further reinforces the fundamental divergence between ETH and BTC: ETH faces higher circulating supply pressure, while BTC benefits from tightening exchange liquidity and continued institutional accumulation. At the same time, the narrative of Ethereum as "ultrasound money" is losing momentum, while BTC continues to receive corporate buying support, including from Strategy, as well as backing from Wall Street funds.